On the one hand, it is a favorable environment, on the other hand, the market activity is insufficient and the price is declining. In 2017, the production of Chinese herbal medicines will usher in a new wave of production peaks and will soon face a new round of low-level challenges. On September 24th, at the 2017 National Chinese Medicine Industry Information Release Summit held in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, the Information Center of China Traditional Chinese Medicine Association website was based on data monitoring, and gathered experts to judge and release the “Report on the Operation of Chinese Herbal Medicine Industry in the First Three Quarters of 2017â€. .
Both ends of the industrial chain are "ice and fire"
According to the "Report", on the one hand, the downstream Chinese medicine industry performed well, and the segment of the Chinese food sector reached a new high. On the other hand, the market of the upstream Chinese herbal medicines fell, and the price dropped significantly.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in the first half of 2017, the added value of the pharmaceutical industry above designated size increased by 11.3% year-on-year, which was higher than the national industry's overall growth rate by 4.4 percentage points, ranking the forefront of the industry. Among them, Chinese herbal medicines, which are the main income or profit growth, are among the top in the sub-sectors and are the most dazzling. The compound growth rate of Chinese medicine formula granules has exceeded 50% for five consecutive years, becoming the entanglement of capital and stock market chasing.
At the same time, however, in the first eight months of this year, the market activity of Chinese herbal medicines was insufficient, and the price was lowered significantly. In the first three quarters of 2017, among the monitored varieties of the network, the number of price increases decreased by 34% compared with the same period of last year, while the declined varieties increased by 7% compared with the same period of last year, and most of the declines were mainly Chinese herbal medicines. At present, there is no obvious sign of change in the above trend.
Production overheating exceeds industry “reservoirâ€
In the opinion of the Chinese medicine industry, benefiting from the favorable environment in the field of Chinese medicine in recent years, especially since last year, the “Yangchun March†of the entire Chinese medicine industry is coming, and the excellent performance of the Chinese medicine industry is also attracting attention in the industry. Why is the raw material side contrasting and the shocking down?
According to the "Report" analysis, this is mainly due to the policy dividend. Under the support of local governments and capital, the production of Chinese herbal medicines in the country is full of enthusiasm and enthusiasm. The upstream “water supply†has exceeded the reservoir capacity of the industry. There will even be “overflowing damsâ€. Jia Haibin, chief analyst of the Chinese herbal medicine Tiandi network think tank, said that in recent times, there have been plans to plant a total of 860,000 mu. "If this is the case, then the output of one year will be enough for 10 years!" Under continuous warning, some areas will eventually withdraw. "Even so, 450,000 mu of land is still planted. Hard to avoid."
It is reported that from 2004 to 2016, the capacity of 200 varieties of Chinese herbal medicines monitored by China Traditional Chinese Medicine Association increased from 1,047,300 tons to 1,705,100 tons, with an average annual growth rate of 4.26%. In the first three quarters of this year alone, the new varieties of these varieties have already been produced. It reached 162.90 million tons, a year-on-year growth rate of 18.23%. Considering that the demand growth rate of the above varieties from 2010 to 2016 is 7.87%, and the balance between production and demand is generally achieved at this stage, the current capacity growth rate has been seriously mismatched with the back-end industry chain, forcing the source of Chinese herbal medicine production to be malignant. competition.
"In the next two years, the drug market will not be able to escape the trough." Jia Haibin said that although the "Chinese Medicine Law" has been adopted, the demand for decoction pieces will increase; the qualification of formula granules is open soon, and related pharmaceutical companies are also giving raw materials. Hope; the silver hair economy will also stimulate some of the health care and drug demand and other factors. This round of lows may not lead to a sharp decline in the price of drugs or even a bad market, but the key to a downturn is to have a more effective strategy.
"Cold spring cold" forced industrial upgrading
The "Report" suggests that in the coolness of the hair, there are also some suggestive warm colors. That is, in the current round of price decline, the real face of the slow-moving price slip situation is mainly the low-grade medicinal materials and varieties such as sulphur yellow fumigation, excessive pesticide residues, blind introduction of medicinal materials, and the quality of traceable medicinal materials and wild medicinal materials. The price advantage is still unmovable and is still expanding. This suggests that the Chinese herbal medicine market has been criticized for the price of the common goods (the same variety of uniform prices) caused by the bad money to expel the good money has been reversed, high quality and good prices began to gain the upper hand, industry integration, reshuffle is inevitable.
At the same time, "cold spring" will force the industry to improve information navigation capabilities, farmers to raise awareness of risk prevention, and stimulate resource integration in the supply chain, establish supply chain finance, order farming and other supporting exercises, and finally rationally adjust production dynamics. If the above measures can be implemented and form a long-term mechanism, it means that the Chinese herbal medicine industry has become a crisis and has continued to grow healthily.
Source: Health News
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